Running Backs
Hierarchal Clustering
Let’s start the analysis by building hierarchal clustering models to visualize running back groupings in 2022 and 2023. To measure the value of a running back, statistics relevant to the fantasy football scoring were selected. To account for potential injuries that could have happened during the season, each player was evaluated on a per game basis, with the minimum number of games played being 8. Below are tables describing the variables used as well as the typical scoring for a quarterback in fantasy football. Note that this model will assume a points per reception format (PPR), but there will be analysis for other formats such as half PPR and standard formats.
Now, let’s take a look at the 2023 dendrograms.
2023 Analysis
Upon initial inspection, there are three clearly defined clusters. On the left side, we have the top performing players. On a points per game basis, the three players finished 1st, 2nd, and 7th. The main variables that separated these three from the rest were the rushing yards, yards after catch, and run first downs. Their ability to be efficient in the run and pass game is what separates them from the other clusters. Similar to the quarterbacks, the first running backs that should go off the board should be the players that can contribute in the run and pass games.
The main differences between the middle and right clusters involve the number of rushing attempts and rushing yards. The middle cluster were not on the same level as the top performing cluster, but they were significantly ahead of the right cluster. Upon further inspection, it also appears that the right cluster is compromised of backups and inefficient players, while the middle cluster has mostly starters. Therefore, we will ignore the right cluster and focus on the middle one instead.
We can create three natural groupings here, and their differences can be explained through their usage. The left side are your “bell cows”, or your players that are utilized much more on running plays. On the right cluster, these are your multi purpose backs, with a stronger ability in the receiving game. In the middle, these are your players that can run just as well as the left side, and catch just as well as the right side. I personally would not say that one group is better than the other, but your draft strategy really comes down to the format of your league. In standard leagues where receptions are not counted as points, the left side would be much more favorable. As the number of points per reception increases though, I would slide further to the right hand side.
2022 Analysis
Interestingly, the 2022 dendrogram turned out to be very similar to the 2023 version. The groupings that can be made were extremely similar to each other. However, the structure was a little different. I will leave it below for inspection.
The more to the left you are on the dendrogram, the more dominant the rusher. The more to the right, the more capable the receiver. The more tot the center you are, the more likely you were a backup or inefficient.